WIll the Pats even make the playoffs????

Answer: Yes. Stopping here would be futile for my blog, so I will explain. Remember in 2003 when the Patriots lost their first game to the lowly Buffalo Bills 31-0? They would go on to win their next two games, putting them in the same position record wise as they are now. The only difference? Tom Brady. Yea that's kind of a big deal, but regardless of what may appear like capable football teams, the AFC East is full of wannabes. The Jets? Well, we actually already beat them in Cassell's first start since high school. Miami?? Yes, it may have been a loss, but realize what happened in that 2003 season where we played Buffalo again in the final regular season game. Result? Same score, 31-0, but this time the goose egg belonged to the Bills. What will happen when New England travels to Miami at the end of November when the team has worked together for several months? I expect a big win. Lastly, there are the Bills, who are currently 3-0. This will be the Patriots only obstacle to the postseason, but in my opinion Trent Edwards leading the Bills to the playoffs is far more unrealistic than Cassell taking the Patriots into January.

Why is this? Everyone puts so much emphasis on the quarterback. Rightfully so, however even good quarterbacks can't win by themselves. Key example, Zack Mills 2002 Penn State quarterback had a QB rating of 128 with 17 TD's and 10 INT's. He was a sophomore. The next two years Mills would total 15 TD's and 17 INT's with a significantly lower QB rating. This was due to the players around him. Larry Johnson and Bryant Johnson (both 1st round picks) helped Penn State's offense and helped Mills be a better player. Without them, and with a weaker line, Mills was punished by opposing teams. So for Matt Cassell...no he's not Tom Brady, but the players around him will turn him into a better player. Once he learns to use Randy Moss' height and speed, Welker's quickness, and a promising running attack, the Patriots will be a top level team. This also relies on their defense, which is a main reason they were embarrassed by the Dolphins last weekend.

They are old, and they are young. Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel...they seem to have been around forever, but although they have lost a step, these are all elite football players. How did Miami beat the Pats? With speed, and a college style running game where Ronnie Brown took several direct snaps. Clearly unprepared for this package, New England gave up huge chunks of yardage and were fooled on a halfback pass where we all learned that Ronnie Brown is a lefty. In my opinion, Miami has blown its load and the next time around I see a better Patriots team and a less shocking offensive gameplan from Miami. The development of Mayo and Merriweather is vital for the Patriots since these two young first rounders need to step up and make plays with their terrific speed. Mayo already playing a significant amount looks great, while Merriweather, a second year player who I have never been too fond of (really think the Patriots should have drafted Paul Posluszny with that pick), still looks raw - typical of a player from the University of Miami.

What do the Pats need to do to contend? Well this isn't going to be anything like last year where New England won its first 18 games (although we all thought it would be before Brady got ACL-season-ed), but this feels like the Pats of old, and by old I mean when they won their 3 Super Bowls with players like Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Christian Fauria (Boom-Boom), and other not-so-great-fantasy-players that contributed to the team concept. These teams were underdogs and always managed to win the tight game and foil the Goliaths like the Colts and Rams who had their high profile players and unstoppable offenses that the media drooled over. Well we are back...back to being underdogs, and this time with an experienced team, and with some superstars on offense...just not at quarterback. Cassell is a smart guy and he has good arm strength and precision when he is given time. Teams will blitz unrelentingly, and he will need to learn to stay in the pocket and deliver like Brady has done for years. Unlike Brady when he won the 3 rings, Cassell has two of the best receivers in the game to throw to. Look for the Pats to make an addition to their defense in the near future, and I predict a 10-6 finish, taking the AFC East from the Bills who will finish at 9-7. Biggest game of the year? December 28 @ Buffalo, last game of the year, with both teams heading into it with 9-6 records.

This may not be the year for the Pats' fourth Super Bowl, but it will be a fun season, and a welcome return to being the underdog.

I miss Manny

So it has been over a month since I last saw Manny in a Red Sox uniform. Little did I know that on that Wednesday night at Fenway Park, I witnessed his final game in Boston. I understand that Manny isn't a great clubhouse influence at times and occasionally it has appeared that he wasn't putting forth his full effort, but regardless...he is one of the best hitters to play the game and he was a Boston icon. With his departure the people of Red Sox Nation turned their back on him completely disregarding the pride and joy that he had brought them over the past 8 years.

Enter Jason Bay. Canadian, emotionless, and a former Pittsburgh Pirate who never played a meaningful game of Major League Baseball in his career. I will admit that he is a good player who has All-Star potential, decent speed, and plays good defense. That being said, he in no way replaces the offense that left with number 24. Of course in his first games in Boston, Bay hit a clutch triple and homerun allowing the near-sighted Red Sox faithful to forget about Emanuel Aristides Ramirez, MVP of the 2004 World Series. Over this month, in which I have endured a loss that I put somewhere between the death of a pet hamster and a parent telling you that "you were a mistake", Manny and Bay have both put up terrific numbers. Bay with the Sox has hit .305 with 4 HR's and 29 RBI's while Manny has taken his game to another level with the Dodgers and smacked 10 HR's driven in 29 while swiping 2 bases and hitting a whopping .407! The main difference between the two besides the batting average (which I personally feel to be an overrated statistic) is the on base percentage. Over the month Bay has walked just 9 times while striking out 30 times (an average of more than one per game), and Manny has walked as many times as he struck out, 21 times. The OBP for the two players .356 for Bay, .500 for Manny. Keep in mind that Julio Lugo's season OBP is .355.

In an offense like the Red Sox the name of the game is get on base. Not only is Bay not getting on at a rate that replaces Manny, but he has not even taken the clean up spot which has been mainly delegated to Kevin Youkilis, who along with Pedroia, are the reason the Sox are going to make the playoffs. With a healthy JD Drew and Mike Lowell (expected in the next week or so), where does Bay fit in? Does he hit 6th? 7th? Although this may not seem like a major issue since he would undoubtedly be the best 7 hitter in the league, but take a step back...you got rid of Manny, you're unstoppable 4th hitter not to mention a great OF prospect in Brandon Moss and RP Craig Hansen....for someone who is hitting 7th in your lineup. When the trade was made I will admit that I shed some tears, but more than anything I was confused why we made that trade. It made no sense to me. It wasn't like trading Nomar for Orlando Cabrera, where we got a healthier more reliable shortstop (although once again I was pretty upset at this trade...but that's why I have waited a month to write this). Here we got a worse player in almost every aspect. Manny's defense in my opinion is above average despite what most think, and I actually have adopted some of his principles in my own outfield play like getting the ball in to a cutoff man as soon as possible and playing a shallow position to take away bloop hits. Bay is an athletic guy, very capable in the OF, not a great arm, but solid. That's how you describe this guy...he's solid. Nothing great, just good, and a very professional player...but we've got enough of those...where's the fun!?!?

So there goes Manny. My Manny. The very man my rabbit is named after. There goes his antics that many complained about, but he is an entertainer. He made us laugh, he made us cry, he brought home two World Series championships and brought fans to their feet almost every night from April to October. He is the most unique player in the game, possibly of all time, and someone we will never figure out completely. Jason Bay may help the Red Sox win a World Series this year, but I am positive that we would be better off with Manny in left field at Fenway. But it's not all about winning and losing sometimes. It's about being able to turn on the TV, watching the Sox and loving every minute of it, staying up until 1:30 am on a night before work in a game that had been decided an hour earlier just to see Manny's final at bat hoping that he hits one out of the park and stands at home plate long enough to make sure that it has been deposited onto the parking garage across Lansdowne Street. Wednesday July 30th, 2008 sitting in the bleachers courtesy of Raytheon, I watched my childhood hero play his final game for the Boston Red Sox not knowing the devastating news that my mother would relay to me at 4:32 pm the next day.

I wish Manny all the best over the rest of his career and hope that when Cooperstown comes knocking, that he puts the Red Sox jersey on one last time.